Predictions on the December 1st Run-off
Here is how I see it the day before the election.
There will be about 250,000 voters. Less then in the first election.
The turnout will be as follows: 12% Hispanic, 32% African-American and 56% Anglo.
The Mayor will get about 30% of the Anglo voters. This is due to a major effort by Anglo Democrats that includes Gays, Environmentalists, Labor, Pro-Choice and Women's groups and moderate Democrats.
The Mayor will get about 35% of the Hispanic vote.
The Mayor will get about 92% of the African-American vote. The Brown campaign has made a huge effort to target this community and will do well in its Get Out the Vote Campaign.
The Mayor wins by a thousand votes, which may come from Fort Bend County.
If the basic Democratic vote turns out in higher numbers the Mayor wins bigger by 2000 votes. Either case it is close..
However if there is a lower turnout in the Black community or a much larger turnout in the Anglo community the Mayor will lose and Orlando Sanchez will be the new Mayor of Houston.
In the other races I give the votes to the Ladies. Being a woman on the ballot is worth several points and I think that will mean the election of these three women.
At-large position #3: Shelley Sekula Rodriquez
At-Large Position #4: Claudia Williamson
District "D": Ada Edwards
*George
gstrong@political.com
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